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  1. 紀要論文
  2. 琉球大学工学部紀要
  3. 46号
  1. 部局別インデックス
  2. 工学部

台風災害の周期'性解析と危険評価

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/2212
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/2212
4afd193f-8f3f-464c-95a6-75869a4237fb
名前 / ファイル ライセンス アクション
No46p45.pdf No46p45.pdf
Item type デフォルトアイテムタイプ(フル)(1)
公開日 2007-10-28
タイトル
タイトル 台風災害の周期'性解析と危険評価
言語 ja
作成者 筒井, 茂明

× 筒井, 茂明

ja 筒井, 茂明

Tsutsui, Shigeaki

× Tsutsui, Shigeaki

en Tsutsui, Shigeaki

アクセス権
アクセス権 open access
アクセス権URI http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
主題
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Typhoon disaster
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Disaster spectrum
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Spectral analysis
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Pulse series
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Maximum entropy
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Extreme-value
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Periodicity
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Risk assessment
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Risk potential
言語 en
主題Scheme Other
主題 Human psychology
内容記述
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Periodicity of fluctuations of typhoon disasters in Okinawa is analyzed by the spectral method. Risk against typhoons is also assessed through evaluation of the risk potential for humandisasters.\nInvestigation of historical changes both in typhoon disasters and in coastal and social environments leads to the fact of increase in risk potential near coastal regions to typhoons, storm surges, and tsunami.\nA new model of spectra for the intermittent time series of disasters and the extreme-value series of climates is developed for extraction of the periods of fluctuations, based on the pulse series analysis. Interrelation between the periods in disasters and climates is clarified. Long-term periodicity of about 9 years exists in the full range 76-83 year time series of typhoon disasters, which is nearly resonant with the 9-11 year period in the full range 42-96 year time series of the number of typhoons, the maximum wind speed, and the maximum instantaneous wind speed. But, in recent 30 years the periods of typhoon disasters have been reduced to the 5.4-7.7 year periods. The 5.4 year period of human disasters is associated with the period of rainfall. On the contrary, the 7.7 year period of the dead is roughly resonant with those of wind speeds and barometric pressure. The fact denotes that the disaster of the dead is chiefly caused by strong winds.\nA method for risk assessment to typhoon disasters is presented and the usefulness is verified by the real data obtained from retroactive investigation using the newspapers. The method is available for the data obtained on many locations spread widely, and then the details between the number of disasters and meteorological conditions being unknown. Reduction of disasters due to human factors, such as careless action, is important to increase in the potential of disaster prevention. In the method, to properly assess risk, the suitable threshold value of the contribution ratio to typhoon disasters is about the mean value 1/N, where N is the total number of measuring sites.\nAs the results of risk assessment with the threshold value of 1/N, it is clearly seen that the disaster preventive ability in Okinawa became high because of recent development in social bases. However, the extreme-value analysis shows that the typhoon disasters in Okinawa have been occurred by small scale typhoons. Therefore, the disaster preventive ability is still not enough judging from the scale and number of typhoons and the present states of coastal and social environments. Occurrence of human disasters reflects psychological problems, which should be taken into considerations in planning any disaster preventive countermeasures.
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 紀要論文
出版者
言語 ja
出版者 琉球大学工学部
言語
言語 jpn
資源タイプ
資源タイプ departmental bulletin paper
資源タイプ識別子 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
出版タイプ
出版タイプ VoR
出版タイプResource http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
識別子
識別子 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/2212
識別子タイプ HDL
収録物識別子
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 0389-102X
収録物識別子タイプ NCID
収録物識別子 AN0025048X
収録物名
言語 ja
収録物名 琉球大学工学部紀要
書誌情報
号 46, p. 45-62
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