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アイテム
Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526b2602d27-e661-470c-90ed-73d39339e02b
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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12_2016-049_1.pdf
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SOLA_Vol12p247.pdf
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| Item type | デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）(1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2018-01-12 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 作成者 |
Ito, Kosuke
× Ito, Kosuke
× 伊藤, 耕介
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| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo - Typhoon Center are systematically compiled to analyze the long-term behavior of errors and to explore the potential for improvement in the forecast accuracy using a statistical correction approach. In this study, a dataset is constructed from annual statistics and every single forecast listed on annual reports on the activities of the RSMC Tokyo. This study found that (1) the accuracy of annual mean forecast has not improved over 26 years and that (2) forecast errors tend to be larger in the rapidly developing TCs. Further analysis reveals that recent forecast output (2008−2014) contains biases associated with the magnitude of the vertical shear of horizontal wind, convective available potential energy, upper ocean temperature, maximum potential intensity (MPI) and ocean coupling potential intensity (OC_PI). To evaluate the adverse effect of such biases in the current forecast system, a simple statistical correction is applied. It improved TC intensity forecast by 7.8−16.9% when an OC_PI is employed. Citation: Ito, K., 2016: Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecast by RSMC Tokyo and statistical correction using environmental parameters. SOLA, 12, 247−252, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-049.) | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | 論文 | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | 公益社団法人日本気象学会 | |||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| 識別子 | ||||||||||
| 識別子 | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526 | |||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | HDL | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2016-049 | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | info:doi/10.2151/sola.2016-049 | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 1349-6476 | |||||||||
| 収録物名 | ||||||||||
| 収録物名 | SOLA | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
号 12, p. 247-252, 発行日 2016-09-16 |
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