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  1. 学術雑誌論文
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  1. 部局別インデックス
  2. 理学部

Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526
b2602d27-e661-470c-90ed-73d39339e02b
名前 / ファイル ライセンス アクション
12_2016-049_1.pdf 12_2016-049_1.pdf
SOLA_Vol12p247.pdf SOLA_Vol12p247.pdf
Item type デフォルトアイテムタイプ(フル)(1)
公開日 2018-01-12
タイトル
タイトル Errors in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast by RSMC Tokyo and Statistical Correction Using Environmental Parameters
言語 en
作成者 Ito, Kosuke

× Ito, Kosuke

en Ito, Kosuke

伊藤, 耕介

× 伊藤, 耕介

ja 伊藤, 耕介

アクセス権
アクセス権 open access
アクセス権URI http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
内容記述
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo - Typhoon Center are systematically compiled to analyze the long-term behavior of errors and to explore the potential for improvement in the forecast accuracy using a statistical correction approach. In this study, a dataset is constructed from annual statistics and every single forecast listed on annual reports on the activities of the RSMC Tokyo. This study found that (1) the accuracy of annual mean forecast has not improved over 26 years and that (2) forecast errors tend to be larger in the rapidly developing TCs. Further analysis reveals that recent forecast output (2008−2014) contains biases associated with the magnitude of the vertical shear of horizontal wind, convective available potential energy, upper ocean temperature, maximum potential intensity (MPI) and ocean coupling potential intensity (OC_PI). To evaluate the adverse effect of such biases in the current forecast system, a simple statistical correction is applied. It improved TC intensity forecast by 7.8−16.9% when an OC_PI is employed. Citation: Ito, K., 2016: Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecast by RSMC Tokyo and statistical correction using environmental parameters. SOLA, 12, 247−252, doi:10.2151/sola.2016-049.)
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 論文
出版者
言語 ja
出版者 公益社団法人日本気象学会
言語
言語 eng
資源タイプ
資源タイプ journal article
資源タイプ識別子 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
出版タイプ
出版タイプ VoR
出版タイプResource http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
識別子
識別子 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37526
識別子タイプ HDL
関連情報
関連識別子
識別子タイプ DOI
関連識別子 https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2016-049
関連識別子
識別子タイプ DOI
関連識別子 info:doi/10.2151/sola.2016-049
収録物識別子
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 1349-6476
収録物名
言語 en
収録物名 SOLA
書誌情報
号 12, p. 247-252
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