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Typhoon-Position-Oriented Sensitivity Analysis. Part I: Theory and Verification
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37532
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/375322e69befb-8a41-4fb0-a96d-f9ecc1dd9fa7
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
Journal_of_the_Atmospheric_Sciences_Vol70p2525.pdf
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| Item type | デフォルトアイテムタイプ（フル）(1) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2018-01-12 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | Typhoon-Position-Oriented Sensitivity Analysis. Part I: Theory and Verification | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 作成者 |
Ito, Kosuke
× Ito, Kosuke
× Chun-Chieh Wu
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| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||||
| 権利情報 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||
| 権利情報 | © 2013 American Meteorological Society | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Tropical cyclones | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Sensitivity studies | |||||||||
| 主題 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||||||
| 主題 | Ensembles | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | A new sensitivity analysis method is proposed for the ensemble prediction system in which a tropical cyclone (TC) position is taken as a metric. Sensitivity is defined as a slope of linear regression (or its approximation) between state variable and a scalar representing the TC position based on ensemble simulation. The experiment results illustrate important regions for ensemble TC track forecast. The typhoon-positionoriented sensitivity analysis (TyPOS) is applied to Typhoon Shanshan (2006) for the verification time of up to 48 h. The sensitivity field of the TC central latitude with respect to the vorticity field obtained from large-scale random initial perturbation is characterized by a horizontally tilted pattern centered at the initial TC position. These sensitivity signals are generally maximized in the middle troposphere and are far more significant than those with respect to the divergence field. The results are consistent with the sensitivity signals obtained from existing methods. The verification experiments indicate that the signals from TyPOS quantitatively reflect an ensemble-mean position change as a response to the initial perturbation. Another experiment with Typhoon Dolphin (2008) demonstrates the long-term analysis of forecast sensitivity up to 96 h. Several additional tests have also been carried out to investigate the dependency among ensemble members, the impacts of using different horizontal grid spacing, and the effectiveness of ensemble-Kalman-filter-based perturbations. | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | 論文 | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | American Meteorological Society | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | jpn | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| 識別子 | ||||||||||
| 識別子 | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12000/37532 | |||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | HDL | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0301.1 | |||||||||
| 関連情報 | ||||||||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||||||
| 関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0301.1 | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | ||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 0022-4928 | |||||||||
| 収録物名 | ||||||||||
| 収録物名 | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
巻 70, 号 8, p. 2525-2546, 発行日 2013-08-05 |
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